Dave Ramsey Wrong? | Huge VIX Options Bets | S&P 500 Seasonality | When Does Government Debt Become a Problem?

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli this week where they analyze the recent viral video where Dave Ramsey suggests people can safely withdraw 8% forever in retirement. What doesn’t make sense, what is left out, and why the assumptions may be faulty. Then, they discuss the market seasonality and whether this November pop higher already delivered a year-end rally? Later Jay and Derek discuss the huge purchase of VIX calls this week and what it did to the VVIX Index as well as an interesting VIX option trade for December. Finally, they touch on Argentina’s plan to dollarize the economy and when the US and other countries high debt to GDP can expect it to be a problem and what is so frustrating to traders making bearish bets against it.

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Topics Include:

Dave Ramsey viral video saying 8% withdrawal rate on accounts will work forever.
How Dave Ramsey makes fun of people arguing for 3%-5% withdrawal rates
The claim of simply investing in mutual funds making 12% annually doesn’t add up.
How ignoring the sequence of return risk doesn’t paint a true picture for retirees.
Dave Ramsey seems to imply even retirees should be 100% invested in equities.
How the sequence of returns only matters to returns when withdrawing or adding money
Simple average annual return vs CAGR compounded annual growth rate.
Contrary to Dave Ramsey’s advice not everyone should pay off their mortgage early.
What historical seasonality of the S&P 500 Index says about year-end performance
One of the largest November months returns on record for S&P 500 Index since 1928
What does November’s month to date returns mean for seasonality?
Sovereign government debt at historic highs measured as debt to GDP.
Argentina new president Javier Milei’s plan to dollarize.
Argentina’s history of debt defaults
Discussing the huge VIX call trade that moved the VVIX Index this week.
Why people are buying VIX calls.
The VIX Index closed at the lowest level since January of 2020
Interesting VIX call breakeven levels for December calls.