Derek and Jay analyze the recent viral video where Dave Ramsey suggests people can safely withdraw 8% forever in retirement. What doesn’t make sense, what is left out, and why the assumptions may be faulty.
New HiPOS Conservative Trade Details - The ZEGA trading team found a new short call spread to put on this morning in the HiPOS conservative accounts.
Derek and Jay review the Goldman Sachs probability of recession and Fed rate forecast for 2024. Then they do a deeper dive on key aspects of US Treasury Bond auctions.
Derek does a deep dive asking the question why is everyone rooting for the Fed to lower rates? If the Fed must lower interest rates, doesn’t that mean there is trouble? Should investors instead be rooting for stable but higher rates where the long end un-inverts as a proxy for higher growth?
Derek and Jay ponder whether the Fed is truly done and if the street is too optimistic on rate cuts in 2024. Plus, they discuss new data showing option selling ETFs are having record assets between inflows and new entrants.