Yield Curve Inversion False Signal? | Competing Economic Data Points | About to Get Earnings Tsunami
Show Summary:
Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial and Derek are back to talk about how there is conflicting bullish and bearish data in the economy. Jobs data vs manufacturing tells a different story. Plus, digging into the labor force participation rate conundrum. This week Campbell Harvey who came up with the 3-month over 10-year treasury yield curve inversion indicator said despite being right every time on recessions, this time may be different.
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Topics Include:
- Campbell Harvey yield curve inversion signals false this time?
- 3 Month Treasury inverted against the 10 Year Treasury Bond
- Labor force participation rate explained.
- Is low unemployment rate because a few million people are not looking for work?
- PMI data shows things are slowing while employment is strong.
- Wage growth revised lower a bullish sign for markets?
- Has Spain’s stock market really gone nowhere for past 13 years?
- It’s about to get real for earnings seasons once again.
- Banks are first up for earnings which may give hints around the economy.
- Don’t overlook Taiwan Semiconductor earnings as an econ barometer for economy.
- And recommendations for a few movies, shows, and books.
Mentioned in this Episode:
Yield curve inversion false signal this time according to Campbell Harvey?
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge