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Worst Market Timing Ever? | Options Cost of Carry | Option Put Call Parity | Unemployment Bad News Is Bad News?

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss how the magnificent 7 stocks aren’t all going up this year. Plus, reviewing what the worst time to buy stocks was and how investors would have done even if they had. Later, they explain why the last 10-15 years before retirement need growth but hedging. How Japan’s central bank might take interest rates from negative to positive, shipping container rates, inflation, Nvidia probabilities and the 15th anniversary of CNBC’s “Mark Haines Bottom” 3/10/2009.

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Topics Include:

  • What is the cost of carry for options
  • What is put call parity
  • Option market probabilities
  • What if you bought stocks at the worst time twice?
  • Drawdowns since March of 2000 and October of 2007
  • 15 years since the Mark Haines bottom on CNBC 2009
  • Comparing stock market drawdowns 2000-2002, 2007-2009, 2018, 2022
  • Time in the market not timing the market
  • Japan interest rate probabilities
  • What may happen if and when Japan raises interest rates?
  • Japan’s currency with a rise in interest rates and implications for US Dollar and Treasuries
  • Magnificent 7 stocks Tesla, Apple, and Google to name a few are down for the year 
  • Nvidia and Eli Lilly keeping the S&P 500 Index up
  • Shipping container rates ease but still high, will we see that filter through CPI Inflation data?
  • Explaining the unemployment report

Mentioned in this Episode:

15 Year Anniversary of the “Mark Haines Bottom” 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com 

Did you miss last week’s episode where Jay and Derek covered:

Why VIX Is Hard to Trade | SuperCore PCE High Again?| High Yield Bond Spreads | The Fed Is Not Cutting? | Semiconductors Surging (Again)

Listen Here: