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Why Crash Predictions Don’t Help | What Does the Market Fear? | Confusing Market Data | 11th Best Start to the Year

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Jay Pestrichelli checks in with Derek Moore to discuss people that always predict horrible market crashes are coming and why it’s so unhelpful for investors. Then they talk through what the market fears (besides the normal stuff) at this point including profit margins and looming strikes. Why is economic data so confusing and if its broken. Finally, they go through the S&P 500 having the 11th best 1st half and compare this market cycle to the 2000 bear market.

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 Topics Include:

  • Fear and market crash prediction do investors no good in the long run.
  • What does the best 1st half market years tell us about the rest of the year’s returns?
  • S&P 500 Index has the 11th best first half of the year.
  • Beyond inflation, what is left for the market to fear?
  • How profit margins may be the next thing to watch
  • The relationship between sales, margins, and earnings
  • The economic data is all over the place.
  • Leading economic indicators would seem to indicate recession, but other things are just fine.
  • PPI minus CPI plotted against GAAP earnings over past years.
  • What does PPI coming down greater than CPI tell us if anything?
  • Surprising that the Dow Jones DIA ETF has a higher total return than SPY since inception.
  • The number of workers on strike by year could hit some recent highs in 2023.
  • What would large numbers of workers striking mean for the economy?
  • Comparing 2000 bear market vs 2022 bear market

 Mentioned in this Episode:

 Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls

Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer 

 Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!

 Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart