Where Markets Go After All-Time Highs by VIX Level | Crazy Earnings Estimates | CPI is Rarely 2% | Latest Interest Rate Probabilities
By Derek Moore
Show Summary:
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX earnings and what the options market is saying plus a few other companies including United Healthcare.
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Topics Include:
- The level of the VIX Index at all-time S&P 500 Index highs and the next 60 days, 3&6 months
- Does where the VIX Index is at all-time market highs really matter?
- The Fed’s elusive 2% target when looking at monthly data back to January of 2012
- How often the year over year (YoY) percent change in CPI is at different levels
- VIX Index vs bond volatility seen via the MOVE Index
- Netflix (NFLX) and United Healthcare (UNH) options market pre-earnings check in
- Implied volatility of options prior to earnings releases
- Predictions for the November Fed meeting
- Quarterly earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index over the next two years are bullish
- Reviewing the Russell 2000 Index earnings estimates and how lofty they are currently
- Looking at growth of next 12 months earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index itself
Charts Mentioned in This Episode
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED with Authors Calculations
Source : Bloomberg
Source : Bloomberg
Mentioned in this Episode
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
Last Week’s Episode:
VIX Too High at All-Time Market Highs? | Employment Surprises | Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drop| No More Port Strike | Technical Analysis on Markets
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