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What Option Volatility Means for Markets | Is the Market Too Dovish on Interest Rate Expectations? | Does the Fed Need an Economics Lesson?

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are back to discuss whether the Fed grasps how prices historically always rise. That prices never drop and inflation dropping doesn’t mean prices go down. Then they discuss the forward earnings estimates showing growth for the S&P 500 Index while comparing price to sales compared to January of 2022. Later, they discuss what the option volatility markets are signaling for the S&P 500 over the near term. All that and more plus is the market pricing in too many rate cuts?

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 Topics Include:

  • Is the market pricing in too many rate cuts?
  • What the option volatility markets are signaling for the S&P 500 
  • Inflation dropping doesn’t mean prices go down
  • Supply side inflation vs demand side inflation 
  • Why throwing money (stimulus) into the economy during a supply side problem was misguided
  • Reviewing option market volatility and what the volatility indicators are telling us about markets
  • The volatility of volatility (VVIX) movements of late
  • Forward earnings estimates point to growth expectations for the S&P 500 Index

Mentioned in this Episode:

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com 

Did you miss last week’s episode where ZEGA’s Mike Puck Joined Derek to discuss whether the run-up in Bitcoin’s price was an example of buy the rumor sell the news leading into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs starting to trade? Value vs. growth in markets and other market musings.

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