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Recession Predictions Still Wrong? | Synthetic Options | Unemployment Anomalies | Oil Prices Breakout

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore is joined once again by Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial where deep dive into the latest employment numbers. Plus, they ponder whether once everyone flips a recession finally comes? Later, they noticed some technical analysis on crude oil prices and a stealth rally. Then Jay and Derek talk through the idea of synthetic option positions including synthetic long stock and its attributes. Q2 earnings wrap up and how analysts over promised worse earnings and what’s ahead. 

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 Topics Include:

  • Unemployment BLS methodology deep dive
  • The unemployment rate rises in August to 3.8% due to anomalies in the report.
  • Yellow Trucking shutdown causes spike in transportation unemployment.
  • Hollywood writers and actors’ strikes cause unemployment rise.
  • Labor force participation rate has been highest since Feb of 2020
  • 25 to 54 age bracket labor force participation rate rises to highest since May of 2002
  • What are synthetic option positions?
  • What is synthetic long stock using options?
  • Mixed bag of economic data
  • Everyone predicted wrong on recession.
  • US Crude Oil inventories are declining.
  • Q2 S&P 500 earnings wrap up.
  • Q3 earnings and beyond preview
  • How earnings predictions have declined over time
  • Are we passed the trough in earnings?
  • Why do people still hold money at large banks getting almost zero interest?
  • What is a cup and handle technical pattern?
  • Crude oil breaks out from cup with handle pattern.

Mentioned in this Episode:

0 DTE Options No Problem? | Jay Powell’s Wyoming Speech Points to More Interest Rate Hikes?

EconPi website 

Employment Numbers from the BLS 

 Fed Funds CME probability tracker tool 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart