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Probability of Recession? | Explaining How US Treasury Bond Auctions Work | S&P 500 Index Member Changes | Option Premium Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, to review the Goldman Sachs probability of recession and Fed rate forecast for 2024. Then they do a deeper dive on key aspects of US Treasury Bond auctions. Hint, it’s a Dutch auction and how to read the results of treasury auctions including the bid to cover ratio. Later they talk through changes in the makeup of the S&P 500 Index companies and what the impact on earnings may be. Plus, how even when stocks go in and out of the index how the “divisor” calculation smooths the S&P 500 price out. Finally, Jay and Derek do a deep dive into the difference of options premium intrinsic value vs. extrinsic value using some examples. Oh, we have some recommendations as well. 

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Topics Include:

  • What does Goldman Sachs have for probability of recession now?
  • What does Goldman Sachs estimate for Fed interest rates in 2024?
  • How do US Treasury bond auctions work?
  • What is a Dutch auction?
  • What is the bid to cover ratio mean in a US Treasury auction?
  • Looking at supply and demand metrics within Treasury Bond auctions.
  • S&P 500 Index committee that determines what companies come in and out of the index.
  • What is the S&P 500 Index divisor?
  • The largest company not in S&P 500 index is Uber?
  • Index changes underappreciated for earnings growth?
  • Airbnb, Blackstone, Lululemon all added to the S&P 500 Index in 2023
  • What is the difference between intrinsic premium and extrinsic premium in options?
  • How the option greeks like delta, gamma, theta impact extrinsic premium but not intrinsic
  • Comparing covered calls to ITM short puts on an index
  • Time decay implied in extrinsic premium
  • When covered calls are likely to get called away around dividends and extrinsic premium left
  • Why are ITM cash secured puts misunderstood 

Mentioned in this Episode:

Stock Market Returns after First Rate Cut 

Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment 

0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart