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Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli ponder whether the Fed is truly done and if the street is too optimistic on rate cuts in 2024. Plus, they discuss new data showing option selling ETFs are having record assets between inflows and new entrants. Bad news is good news still as employment ticks up. They delve deeper into the numbers including labor participation rate, size of workforce, and more in the household survey data. Finally, they talk about options volatility and how it got sucked out of the market this week. 

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 Topics Include:

  • Option selling ETFs set new record high for assets.
  • Is the Fed really done raising rates?
  • Is the street too optimistic about Fed rate cutting in 2024?
  • Sahm Recession Rule indicator says recent employment data hints at recession.
  • 3-Month moving average of the unemployment rate in the Sahm recession rule indicator
  • VIX hits lowest level in a while.
  • Earnings and Nvidia options
  • Bad news is good news regime is still alive and well in markets.
  • US unemployment rate ticks up to 3.9%
  • Understanding the household survey numbers
  • What is the labor force participation rate?
  • Size of the US workforce

Mentioned in this Episode:

BLS US Unemployment Rate report 

Correction Territory | No Fear Yet in Markets? | When Does Capitulation Happen in Markets?

Fed Rate probability tracker 

Deep Dive: Can Bonds Recover? | TLT ETF Breakdown |Inflation and the Fed 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart