facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast blog search brokercheck brokercheck
%POST_TITLE% Thumbnail

Now Its 1 Fed Rate Cut? | Nvidia Options Volatility Implied Move at Earnings | Sell in May and Go Away in Election Years? | Inflation Higher Than 1970s?

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore discusses the declining probabilities for Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. Plus, how PCE Supercore did not make the case for Fed rate cuts. Later, looking at the analyst’s expectations for earnings growth within the S&P 500 Index. Finally, comments on a paper showing how using the pre-1983 methods to compute CPI Consumer Price Index show we had higher inflation than in the 1970s.

You can click below to listen:

Or Your Favorite Podcast App to Listen and Subscribe to Get Notified of New Episodes

Apple Podcasts

Spotify Podcasts

Topics Include:

  • Declining Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for 2024.
  • Explaining how implied interest rates from Fed Funds futures are computed.
  • The case against rate cuts seems to be buoyed by sticky US CPI Supercore measures.
  • What is CPI Supercore and PCE Supercore compared to CPI Core and plain old CPI?
  • Explaining how the US CPI Consumer Price Index used to compute inflation prior to 1983.
  • How measuring housing inflation changed in 1983.
  • Why did they change how CPI is measured to owners’ equivalent rent?
  • Looking at the probabilities for rate cuts across different Fed FOMC meeting dates
  • What about Sell in May and Go Away in election years?
  • Explaining how to tell what the options market is implying for a 1-standard deviation move.
  • Implied volatility around Nvidia earnings date scheduled for May 22nd.
  • How to calculate the implied move in a stock based on the options market.
  • Examining the at the money ATM straddle on Nvidia options expiring 2 days after earnings

Mentioned in this Episode

Podcast: Explaining How and Why Bonds Make or Lose Money

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart

 Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com