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New Podcast: Jay and Derek Talk Oil, Inflation, Volatility, and S&P Returns

By Derek Moore

Jay Pestrichelli and Derek Moore discuss why volatility remains high. How the VIX Index stays elevated even after the initial reasons subside. What is driving the market pricing of the S&P 500 Index and how it compares to prior 10-year periods. Plus, comparing this high oil price period to prior ones on an inflation adjusted basis. When do high oil prices matter?

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Topics Included:

  • What are driving returns right now (earnings or multiples)
  • Is the market getting cheap on a forward PE multiple base?
  • Comparing 10-year periods (referencing Sempres Augustus letter)
  • Looking at price inputs like revenues, share count, margins, multiples, and dividend yield
  • Is the embedded volatility premium (VIX Index) here to stay?
  • Discussing oil prices on an inflation adjusted basis
  • When do high oil prices matter?
  • When does inflation matter to the economy and margins for companies?
  • Will CPI released in April for the month of March reveal a +10% YoY?
  • Plus, Derek admits a bad beat on the contrarian corner 

 Mentioned in this Episode:

 Derek Moore’s Book, Broken Pie Chart 

 Jay Pestrichelli's Book, Buy and Hedge