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New Podcast: Enough Fed Pivot Talk!

Show Summary:

 Every time you tune into CNBC you hear predictions about when the recession will hit. Then, when the Fed will pivot. But are people focused on the wrong things? Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss markets, earnings, and why the contrarian take is everyone can’t be right. Plus, the more the yield curve inverts, the harder it will be for a recession to arrive in 2023.

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Topics Include:

  • 2023 Earnings EPS scenarios review
  • Forward P/E ratios and where multiples will be
  • Why the market goes up or down form here (or sideways)
  • Employment differences in the Household Survey vs Establishment Survey
  • NFP labor market survey low response rate
  • Atlanta Fed Wage tracker moving in wrong direction (moving higher)
  • Monthly Inventories and sales ratios showing higher inventory builds
  • PPI comparing core less food and energy with total PPI
  • PPI higher but lower YoY number
  • History of Fed Pivots and where we are now in the cycle
  • Index of companies with international sales inverse with US Dollar strength
  • Why the dollar needs to go lower
  • Shanghai to Los Angeles container shipping rates almost back to pre-Covid average

 Mentioned in this Episode:

 Podcast FTX Crypto Debacle | Yield Curve Inversion | Enough with Recession Talk  

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart 

 Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge