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MicroStrategy Market Cap vs Bitcoin | Valuations Getting Frothy ? | Yields vs Fed Cuts | Second Inflation Surge? | US Dollar Problem | Nvidia Options

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surge for inflation. Later, they talk about volatility on Nvidia a week out from earnings and their options, 90+ days delinquent credit card debt rising, and comparing post-election rallies around close Presidential elections.

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Topics Include:

  • MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding
  • Post election rallies around close Presidential elections
  • 10-Year Treasury Yields acting different than normal post Fed cutting action
  • US 2-year Treasury yield vs the Fed Funds target rate
  • Probability of interest rate cut in December update
  • US Inflation progress stalled in October?
  • US Dollar Index pushing through resistance
  • When the US Dollar strength matters and when it doesn’t
  • Comparing where we are today with inflation against the 1970s chart
  • S&P 500 Index risk premium (forward earnings yield minus 10-year treasury yield)
  • Percentage of US credit card debt that is delinquent reaches highest level in over a decade
  • S&P 500 Index forward EPS estimates
  • Barron’s article evaluating MicroStrategy’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings

Charts Discussed in This Episode

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation, Isabelnet

Source: The Daily Shot, Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg WIRP Fed Funds Probabilities

Source: Bloomberg 

Source: Bloomberg US Dollar Index

Source: Macrobond and Nordea

Source: Bloomberg

Mentioned in this Episode

Barron’s Article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy valuation

Explanation of US sugar tariffs and the history of behind them 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

www.zegainvestments.com 

Last Week’s Episode:

S&P 500 6000 | Bitcoin Strategic Reserve? | Why Bond Yields May Go Higher | Fed Rate Cuts Near All-Time Highs Bullish?

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