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Is the Forward PE Useless?| S&P 500 Election Seasonality | Gen Z vs. Gen X Special

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, ask whether forward PE ratios are predictive of future market direction? Then they review how the S&P 500 Index has performed during each presidential election going back to 1996. Does it matter which party (Republicans or Democrats) are in office for markets? Is Tesla going to get kicked out of the Magnificent 7? Later Jay and Derek are joined by two Gen Z’ers (Zander and Bobby), to explore what their views are on money, markets, and take some questions. 

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Topics Include:

  • Explaining what the forward PE is for the S&P 500 Index
  • What are the current forward EPS estimates for the S&P 500 Index
  • What if Forward PE ratios don’t tell us too much about future direction for markets?
  • Cocoa futures go parabolic during latest spike 
  • Where cocoa beans come from
  • Delinquencies on auto loans rise 
  • Seasonality in markets during presidential election years
  • Stock market returns when Republicans vs Democrats controlling presidency, senate, and house
  • Magnificent 6? Is Tesla going to get kicked out of magnificent 7?
  • Gen Z trading options
  • Does Gen Z really invest as much as the media suggests?
  • Where does Gen Z get their financial education online?
  • Quick explanation on the option greeks
  • How stocks are discounting the known future of companies
  • Surprising data on historic stock returns vs real estate

Mentioned in this Episode:

Cocoa prices soar  

Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2023 NYU Aswath Damodaran 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com 

Did you miss last week’s episode where Jay and Derek covered:

Too Focused on Fed Rates?| META Earnings Implied Volatility | NAV Erosion Myth

Listen Here: