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Fear and Greed Index | Volatility Surface | Put Call Ratio | Wall Street Gets Bullish | Homebuilders Surprise

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

 Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli talk about CNN’s Fear and Greed Index and whether it’s a good indicator for markets. Then they explore differences in Put Call Ratios and how they may not measure what people think. Plus, they look at the volatility surface across different option maturities noting how low near-term options implied volatilities have gotten indicating there is no fear. Once again, they comment on how the VIX is NOT broken! Later they discuss investment banks raising their year-end S&P 500 targets now that markets are higher and how no one expected homebuilders to be up 43% from the October 2022 lows but they are. Finally, Jay and Derek comment on data comparing market performance in the first ½ hour, middle of the day, final hour, and buy and hold. Of course, they have a recommendation. 

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 Topics Include:

  • CNN’s Fear and Greed Index 
  • What goes into the Put Call Ratio
  • How Option Open Interest changes depending on the transaction. 
  • Option open interest can be selling options to open or buying options to open.
  • Wall Street investment banks raise their year-end S&P 500 targets.
  • Bespoke chart showing S&P 500 returns held during different periods.
  • Performance of S&P 500 in first ½ hour, middle of the day, final hour, and buy and hold.
  • Surprise Strong performance by US Homebuilders up 43% since October 2022 lows
  • Existing One Family Home Sales Median Price YoY change goes negative.
  • The VIX isn’t broken and how the CBOE has different VIX indexes for various time periods.

Mentioned in this Episode:

 Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995

Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low 

 AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels 

 AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills?    

 Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart