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Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss Jay Powell’s tough talking but no action Fed. Plus, is this a repeat of the 1994-1995 forward PE expansion bull market? Also, they go back to the 200-2002 bear market where the Nasdaq 100 had 7 different 20% bear market rallies and the S&P 500 had its own share. Is this different? Finally, Jay and Derek look at instances where the S&P 500 made new highs with only 5% of the companies also making 52-week highs and the subsequent future historical returns. Off course some recommendations and they read a listener note. 

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 Topics Include:

  • Why is 20% of the low a new bull market suddenly?
  • New bull market or another bear market rally?
  • The 1994-95 blueprint of markets rallying with forward PE expansion with rate hikes.
  • Jay Powell and the Fed claim they are doing 2 more rate hikes?
  • Tough talk by the Fed but they sit on their hands at the meeting.
  • Why the Fed had nothing to do with taming inflation.
  • PE multiple expansion responsible for the market rally.
  • Fed may keep rates higher for longer.
  • Does the Fed and inflation even matter anymore?
  • Reviewing the 2000-2002 many failed greater than 20% bear market rallies
  • Quantity theory of money PQ = MV
  • The velocity of money and why quantitative easing doesn’t always cause inflation
  • Inflation dropping (caused by supply chain problems and government stimulus) not the Fed

 Mentioned in this Episode:

 Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low 

 AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels 

AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills?    

 Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart