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Are We Already in a Recession? | Markets Are Smarter Than Everyone | Picking Stocks Is Really Hard!

Show Summary:

Derek Moore and Mike Puck discuss the upcoming Fed meeting and whether rates will stick around at higher levels for a while despite general estimates for lower rates in the back half of 2023 and early 2024. Mixed signals in the labor market as tech announces layoffs while other companies point to hiring. Why it’s tough to pick individual stocks using Tesla as an example. 

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Topics Include:

  • Does the Fed still want bad things to happen in the economy?
  • Watch the Fed press conference
  • Tech stocks see gains after layoff announcements
  • Why picking individual stocks is so hard
  • Tesla record earnings and revenues but 2022 was a bad year for its stock price
  • Bull market in Orange Juice?
  • LEI Leading Economic Indicators flashing recession signal
  • Strong Q4 GDP but interesting durable goods transportation contribution
  • Fed Funds futures don’t believe the Fed will keep interest rates high
  • Would it be so bad if we got to 4.8% Fed Funds and stayed there?
  • Why markets don’t like rate uncertainty
  • Q4 earnings look to be below the prior year
  • Accuracy of the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast Model
  • NFIB Small Business survey not so rosy?
  • Jeremy Siegel the eternal optimist
  • So is good news “good news” again?

Mentioned in this Episode:

Earnings declines don’t always mean stock market declines

 1994-95 all over again for stock market?

 ZEGA Financial

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart

 Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge