All the News is Out? |Nvidia Earnings Breakdown | Implied Volatility and Earnings for Nvidia | Is the Long Bond Trade Getting Crowded?
Derek Moore
Show Summary:
Derek Moore is back to break down Nvidia’s beat, but not beat (whisper number), their growth year over year, their profit margins, and percent they beat on the top and bottom line. Then, looking at the implied volatility and expected move post earnings in Nvidia and how to calculate it. Understanding why sometimes a long straddle option position before earnings makes money and other times it doesn’t. Later, peeking in at the implied Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for the September meeting. Finally, “everyone” seems to be saying it’s time to buy longer maturity bonds. Is that view getting crowded and why will or won’t long rates move lower because the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate.
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Topics Include:
- Nvidia earning beat but misses the “whisper” number
- After hours trading reaction to Nvidia earnings
- Difference between Gross profit and Net profit
- Nvidia’s massive profit margins compared to grocery stores
- Earning growth year over year
- Implied volatility pre-earnings to compute the implied expected stock move
- Why option premiums and volatility rise before earnings announcements
- How implied volatility gets sucked out of markets post earnings
- Long Straddles at the money before earnings characteristics and risks
- The Fed is expected to lower the front part of the interest rate curve
- What does that mean for the back half of the longer duration bond maturities?
- The spread between the 10-year treasury bond and the 30-year mortgage rate
- Hindenburg Research negative piece on Super Micro Computer SMCI
Mentioned in this Episode
Hindenburg negative research on Super Micro Computer
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
Last Week’s Episode:
Jay Powell & The “Good Ship Transitory” | Price Caps Proposed by Politicians | Huge Employment Revisions | US Dollar Breaking Down?