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Now Everyone Is Bullish? | Shocking Impact of Missing Just the 2 Best Days Each Year

Show Summary:

Derek Moore is back with ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to discuss how AFTER the market ran up in January people are bullish according to the new AAII Individual Investor survey. Plus, updated numbers on the difference in hypothetical returns if you missed ONLY the 2 best day each year over a 10 or 20-year period. Then, we continue to get economic data that is telling different stories so what to believe? Then they give some recommendations. 

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Topics Include:

  • AAII Sentiment Poll Bulls minus Bears turns positive after 44 consecutive weeks bearish.
  • NAAIM Exposure Index (Active Manager Equity Exposure) most bullish since Jan 2022
  • Shocking difference in returns when taking out 2 best market days over 10 and 20 years
  • Worst 20 year rolling return was still positive 
  • Atlanta Wage Growth tracker shows wage growth still strong
  • Difference between job switchers and job stayers still wide (make more switching)
  • Leisure and Hospitality wages still surging to new highs
  • Since WWII markets have taken off 7 months post inflation peaks on average
  • Inventories in durable goods and lumber (and other construction materials) move higher
  • Fed governors talk tough and market implied fed funds rate surges higher
  • People are spending down the post-Covid excess savings

 Mentioned in this Episode:

Personal Savings 

 Wage growth tracker 

 Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart