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ChatGPT Investment Advice? | Too Much Money Causing 1m/3m T-bill Spread?

By Derek Moore

Show Summary:

Derek Moore poses some investment questions to ChatGPT, is it helpful? Instances where ChatGPT is wrong. Then, looking at the bulk of Q1 2023 earnings releases and what we’ve learned. Were analysts too bearish? Finally, Derek delves into the below the surface aspects of 1 month T-Bills yields so much less than 2- and 3-month T-Bills. Even less than the Fed Funds rate. Derek’s theory is with the increase in cash flowing to money markets, and levels of Overnight Reverse Repos not increasing, the Occam’s Razor answer is too little availability of near cash T-bills. 

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 Topics Include:

  • ChatGPT as an investment advisor?
  • Asking ChatGPT for some investment questions
  • Is ChatGPT correct on stuff?
  • 1-month US Treasury Bills yield much less than 3-month US Treasury Bills
  • How historic is the difference between 1-month yields and 3-month yields?
  • What does it mean if anything when 1-month T bills yield less than Fed Funds?
  • Overnight Reverse Repo market used by the Fed as alternatives to near money T-bills.
  • Compare the Reverse Repo interest rate to 1-month treasuries.
  • Were analysts too bearish on Q1 2023 earnings?
  • How analysts change their estimates over time
  • Money Market funds have the highest level of assets all the way back to 2007.
  • 20–30-year-olds should focus on increasing balances
  • Why 20–30-year-olds spend too much time on optimizing returns

 Mentioned in this Episode:

 Weird Bond Yield Stuff Happening | New 1 Day VIX Index? 

 Debt Ceiling Risk | Recession Signals | 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion Podcast 

 Can the Fed Fail? 

 What are Reverse Repos and Repos? Fed usage of overnight reverse repos 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge 

 Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking 

 Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart